Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 22.934741 27.473001 32.451344 38.288879 44.916334 52.176887 60.701644
2025-08-24 16.064121 21.967068 29.094002 38.204544 49.405208 62.587259 79.125156
2025-08-31 11.676472 17.854616 25.924425 36.963239 51.373016 69.236823 92.716380
2025-09-07 9.414626 15.830170 24.775501 37.693602 55.358621 78.133424 109.111915
2025-09-14 7.352562 13.591813 22.863762 36.957630 57.072268 83.935715 121.597874
2025-09-21 6.194682 12.448593 22.267568 37.848083 60.876229 92.513130 137.939962
2025-09-28 4.729833 10.478998 20.091167 36.089733 60.652323 95.431652 146.641309
2025-10-05 4.133920 9.887135 19.981911 37.395149 64.885423 104.667010 164.299262
2025-10-12 3.572393 9.234233 19.658201 38.276522 68.464486 113.058054 181.030942
2025-10-19 3.075769 8.597513 19.258444 38.952190 71.705016 121.031357 197.397068
2025-10-26 2.693502 8.114278 19.058015 39.910272 75.396637 129.772271 215.125186
2025-11-02 2.213390 7.292030 18.095248 39.423923 76.675351 134.867510 227.615601
2025-11-09 1.854239 6.701597 17.572908 39.803325 79.622376 142.989630 245.464160
2025-11-16 1.509030 6.046866 16.826444 39.707101 81.785763 150.042171 262.075285
2025-11-23 1.149174 5.214814 15.545564 38.427036 81.768615 153.576504 273.372153
2025-11-30 0.976491 4.880999 15.320349 39.179806 85.352520 163.019660 294.097004
2025-12-07 0.758732 4.302293 14.408088 38.421206 86.121280 167.838371 307.672209
2025-12-14 0.651223 4.070981 14.308236 39.339020 90.009935 177.961446 329.952069
2025-12-21 0.466588 3.429126 13.015137 37.526500 88.613372 179.075810 337.750166
2025-12-28 0.411776 3.319535 13.141804 38.872187 93.338347 190.805333 363.102940
2026-01-04 0.352495 3.155246 13.082834 39.780574 97.243354 201.232615 386.584415
2026-01-11 0.296988 2.974844 12.941807 40.476858 100.751402 211.067854 409.330603
2026-01-18 0.255257 2.843573 12.925654 41.464039 104.884464 222.126884 434.380875